Will Trump be impeached by June 30, 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market has very straightforward resolution criteria based on an official, binary legislative action: whether the US House of Representatives votes by a simple majority to approve at least one article of impeachment against Donald Trump.
Read the full assessment
The market has very straightforward resolution criteria based on an official, binary legislative action: whether the US House of Representatives votes by a simple majority to approve at least one article of impeachment against Donald Trump. The start and end dates are clearly specified, and the rules explicitly clarify that Senate trial, conviction, or removal from office is not required for a positive resolution. While the rules note that a consensus of reporting may be consulted alongside US federal government records, official congressional roll call votes are public and definitive, leaving virtually no room for subjective interpretation or source discretion.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
39%
chance▲ +4.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Donald Trump is impeached by the US House of Representatives within a specified timeframe. It uniquely tracks only the House impeachment vote, regardless of any Senate trial, conviction, or removal.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the US House of Representatives passes or approves one or more articles of impeachment against President Donald Trump by simple majority vote between July 24, 2025, and June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Senate trial, Senate conviction, and removal from office are not required for a Yes resolution. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. The market is decided based on information from the federal government of the United States, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Information from the federal government of the United States, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·