Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution conditions are well defined: the market requires the US House of Representatives to pass at least one article of impeachment by a simple majority vote between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
Read the full assessment
The resolution conditions are well defined: the market requires the US House of Representatives to pass at least one article of impeachment by a simple majority vote between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The rules explicitly clarify that Senate trial, conviction, or removal is not required for a affirmative outcome. While the rules note that a consensus of credible reporting may be used alongside official US federal government records, an official House vote is an objective public record with negligible ambiguity.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
1%
chance▲ +0.15 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether the US House of Representatives impeaches President Donald Trump within a specified window. It does not require Senate trial, conviction, or removal from office.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the US House of Representatives approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment against President Donald Trump by a simple majority vote between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Senate trial, conviction, or removal from office are not required for a Yes resolution. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. The market is decided using information from the federal government of the United States as the primary source, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Information from the federal government of the United States, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·