Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly establish an objective, named metric and URL to determine resolution: the highest rank on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard at a specific timestamp (November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET).
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly establish an objective, named metric and URL to determine resolution: the highest rank on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard at a specific timestamp (November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET). Explicit parameter settings are defined, including disabling style control, filtering for models, and excluding entries labeled AutoEval. Step-by-step tiebreakers using unrounded scores and alphabetical company ordering are specified, and standard fallback provisions cover temporary or permanent website downtime.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market explained
This market measures whether Xiaomi owns the top-ranked model on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard on November 30, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Xiaomi occupies first place on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard at the check time. It resolves to No if another company holds first place. It resolves to Other if the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable. Models marked "AutoEval" are excluded from consideration regardless of rank or score. Rankings are determined primarily by leaderboard rank with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models". Ties are broken first by Arena score including underlying unrounded values, and then alphabetically by company name. If the source is unavailable at check time, the market remains open until it is back online. The designated decider is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard.
Resolution source
arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·