Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide an exact URL, tab, filter, and style control setting on the Arena.ai leaderboard to determine the top-ranked model on November 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Read the full assessment
The rules provide an exact URL, tab, filter, and style control setting on the Arena.ai leaderboard to determine the top-ranked model on November 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Specific exclusions like AutoEval models are explicitly defined, as are granular tie-breaking mechanisms down to unrounded scores and alphabetical company names. A contingency plan is also clearly outlined in case the website is offline at the scheduled check time.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market explained
This market measures whether Amazon owns the top-ranked AI model on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard at the end of November 2026. Resolution relies on specific leaderboard filters, excludes AutoEval models, and includes multi-step tiebreakers.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Amazon owns the AI model holding the first-place rank on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard when checked. Models marked "AutoEval" are excluded from consideration. Ties are broken first by unrounded Arena score, and finally by alphabetical order of the company names. The market resolves to No if another company owns the top-ranked model under these rules. The market resolves to Other if the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable. If the source is temporarily offline at check time, the market stays open until the leaderboard returns. Resolution is decided using the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard.
Resolution source
arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·