Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market relies on a specific, named leaderboard URL with exact settings specified, including disabling style control and filtering for Models.
Read the full assessment
This market relies on a specific, named leaderboard URL with exact settings specified, including disabling style control and filtering for Models. The check time is fixed to November 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Clear criteria are provided for edge cases: models tagged with AutoEval are excluded, granular unrounded scores serve as the first tiebreaker, and alphabetical order of company names acts as the final tiebreaker. If the site is temporarily down, resolution waits for it to return, and only resolves to Other if permanently offline. The only minor consideration is standard leaderboard attribution of which company owns a given model, but the objective ranking criteria leave minimal room for decider latitude.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market explained
This market measures whether Microsoft owns the top-ranked AI model on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard at the end of November 2026. Models marked AutoEval are excluded, and ties are broken by granular scores then alphabetical company order.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Microsoft owns the model occupying first place on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard at the check time, using the specified filters with style control off. Models marked AutoEval are excluded from consideration. The market resolves to No if a model owned by another company occupies first place. Models are ordered by leaderboard rank, then by unrounded granular Arena score, and finally by alphabetical order of company names. The market resolves to Other if the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable. If the source is temporarily offline at check time, resolution waits until it is back online. Resolution is determined by checking the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard.
Resolution source
arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·