Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Belarus?
Gotcha risk
Medium1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly define what constitutes a qualifying in-person meeting by requiring direct personal interaction like a conversation or handshake rather than mere physical proximity.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly define what constitutes a qualifying in-person meeting by requiring direct personal interaction like a conversation or handshake rather than mere physical proximity. Special territorial distinctions are explicitly addressed, such as treating de facto Russian-controlled Ukrainian territory as Russia and separating Vatican City from Italy. Regional categorisation is anchored to an official US State Department list. However, there is no single official authority designated to certify the occurrence or details of an encounter, leaving resolution dependent on consensus across credible media reporting, which introduces judgement regarding whether brief or disputed interactions meet the threshold.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Last captured price
3%
chance▲ +2.25 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to "No meeting by December 31, 2027" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe. A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Zelenskyy are all present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. For the purpose of this market, a meeting held on Ukrainian territory under the de facto control of Russia (e.g., Crimea) will be considered part of Russia. A meeting held in Vatican City will resolve to "Vatican City," not "Italy." If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to "Other - Europe." If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to "Other - Middle East/North Africa." If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any unlisted country that is not classified in either specified region, this market will resolve to "Other." For purposes of this market, countries' regions will be determined based on the U.S. State Department's regional classifications in the "Countries and Areas List" (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of "Europe and Eurasia" will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of "Near East (Middle East and North Africa)" will be considered to be in the Middle East/North Africa. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether the next in-person meeting between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy occurs in Belarus by December 31, 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the next qualifying in-person meeting between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy takes place in Belarus between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying meeting requires both individuals to be present and directly interact, such as through an exchange of words, a handshake, or direct conversation; merely standing in proximity or being in the same room without direct interaction does not qualify. The market resolves to No if their next meeting occurs in a different location, or to "No meeting by December 31, 2027" if no meeting occurs by the deadline. Other specific outcomes apply for meetings in unlisted countries based on U.S. State Department regional classifications. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·