Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Poland?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official record or dedicated authority to determine whether an interaction qualifies as a meeting.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official record or dedicated authority to determine whether an interaction qualifies as a meeting. The rules clearly distinguish between being present in the same room and direct interaction like a handshake or exchange of words, but verifying brief encounters at international summits may require subjective interpretation of media reports. The rules also specify regional fallback categories and special geographic exceptions, such as counting Russian-controlled Ukrainian territory as Russia, which could surprise participants who only read the title.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Last captured price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to "No meeting by December 31, 2027" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe. A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Zelenskyy are all present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. For the purpose of this market, a meeting held on Ukrainian territory under the de facto control of Russia (e.g., Crimea) will be considered part of Russia. A meeting held in Vatican City will resolve to "Vatican City," not "Italy." If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to "Other - Europe." If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to "Other - Middle East/North Africa." If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any unlisted country that is not classified in either specified region, this market will resolve to "Other." For purposes of this market, countries' regions will be determined based on the U.S. State Department's regional classifications in the "Countries and Areas List" (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of "Europe and Eurasia" will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of "Near East (Middle East and North Africa)" will be considered to be in the Middle East/North Africa. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether the next in-person meeting between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy occurs in Poland by December 31, 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy have their next in-person meeting in Poland before the deadline. A qualifying meeting requires both individuals to be present and personally interact through an exchange of words, a handshake, or direct conversation; merely being in the same room or standing near each other without direct interaction does not qualify. The market resolves to No if their next meeting takes place in a different country or location, or if no qualifying meeting occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution will be determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·