Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in another country?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official registry or formal declaration, requiring discretionary judgement about whether a brief interaction constitutes a qualified encounter versus mere proximity.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official registry or formal declaration, requiring discretionary judgement about whether a brief interaction constitutes a qualified encounter versus mere proximity. The rules clearly define what constitutes an interaction and outline boundary conditions, such as classifying Russian-controlled Ukrainian territory as Russia and separating Vatican City from Italy. Regional groupings are pegged to an external standard from the U.S. State Department. The long timeframe extends through December 31, 2027, with clear fallback options for unlisted countries or if no encounter takes place.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Last captured price
1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to "No meeting by December 31, 2027" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe. A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Zelenskyy are all present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. For the purpose of this market, a meeting held on Ukrainian territory under the de facto control of Russia (e.g., Crimea) will be considered part of Russia. A meeting held in Vatican City will resolve to "Vatican City," not "Italy." If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to "Other - Europe." If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to "Other - Middle East/North Africa." If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any unlisted country that is not classified in either specified region, this market will resolve to "Other." For purposes of this market, countries' regions will be determined based on the U.S. State Department's regional classifications in the "Countries and Areas List" (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of "Europe and Eurasia" will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of "Near East (Middle East and North Africa)" will be considered to be in the Middle East/North Africa. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures the location of the next in-person meeting between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy. It features specific territorial definitions, such as treating Russian-controlled Ukrainian territory as Russia and separating Vatican City from Italy.
How it resolves
The market resolves to the specific country or regional category where Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy next meet in person before the deadline. A qualifying meeting requires both individuals to be present and engage in a direct personal interaction, such as a handshake, conversation, or exchange of words. Mere physical proximity, shared room presence, or eye contact without direct interaction does not qualify. Meetings in Russian-controlled Ukrainian territory count as taking place in Russia, and Vatican City counts separately from Italy. If the meeting occurs in an unlisted European country, it resolves to "Other - Europe". If in an unlisted Middle East or North Africa country, it resolves to "Other - Middle East/North Africa". If in any other unlisted country, it resolves to "Other". Regional classifications follow the U.S. State Department list. The market resolves to "No meeting by December 31, 2027" if no qualifying meeting occurs by the deadline. A consensus of credible reporting decides the resolution.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·