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GeopoliticsCloses · in 47 days$258.5K volumePart of: Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? →

Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

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Gotcha risk

Medium

3 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: This market relies on determining whether an event meets the criteria for a formal senior-level peace-talks round or deliberate negotiating round, which introduces ambiguity around what qualifies as senior versus technical, staff-level, or preparatory.

Read the full assessment

This market relies on determining whether an event meets the criteria for a formal senior-level peace-talks round or deliberate negotiating round, which introduces ambiguity around what qualifies as senior versus technical, staff-level, or preparatory. While direct meetings count, the rules also include indirect in-person diplomacy via mediators where parties are not in the same room, widening the scope of qualifying events. Resolution is verified either via official statements from the governments or the individual, or via a consensus of credible media reporting, leaving some discretion to the resolver in interpreting news reports of sensitive or back-channel diplomatic engagements.

Resolver
Medium
Timing
Low
Wording
Medium
Exceptions
Medium

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

28%

chance

▼ −8.5 pts · 24h

Yes28¢
No72¢
Steve Witkoff · Yes · 1MO 33.5 H 46.0 L 27.0 C 28.5−5.0 (−14.9%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▼ −12 pts24h · detected 12 Nov 2026, 17:25 UTC

The price fell from 37% to 26% alongside simultaneous downward moves across 3 related markets tracking attendees for US-Iran diplomatic meetings, including J.D. Vance, Abbas Araghchi, and Jared Kushner.

  • Largest hourly change: 17:00 UTC, 76% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 48 days after the move hour.
  • 3 related outcomes moved in the same window, 3 in the same direction. Largest: J.D. Vance (down), Abbas Araghchi (down), Jared Kushner (down).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 12 Nov 2026, 17:36 UTC

Earlier

▼ −12 pts · 10 Nov 2026, 15:10 UTCThe market price fell from 49% to 37% as related outcomes repriced together, including a simultaneous decline in the Jared Kushner outcome.News check pending.AI-generated · 10 Nov 2026, 15:20 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Market explained

This market measures whether Steve Witkoff physically attends and actively participates in a formal, senior-level US-Iran diplomatic meeting or round of peace talks by December 31, 2026.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if Steve Witkoff physically attends and actively participates in any formal senior-level round of peace talks between official representatives of the US and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying meetings must be deliberate in-person diplomatic sessions (including authorized indirect diplomacy through mediators) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Multi-day meetings qualify if he attends any part. Technical talks, staff-level meetings, follow-ons from the June 22 Switzerland round, remote sessions, brief greetings, or photo ops do not qualify. The market resolves to No if these conditions are not met. The deciding sources are official information from the individual and the governments of the US and Iran, or a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution source

Official information from Steve Witkoff and the governments of the United States and Iran, or a consensus of credible reporting

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·