Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market straightforwardly resolves based on whether Ron DeSantis wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination.
Read the full assessment
The market straightforwardly resolves based on whether Ron DeSantis wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination. Resolution relies on a consensus of official Republican Party sources rather than a single named document or official website, which introduces slight discretion, but the outcome of a national party convention is definitive and widely documented. The rules also clarify that any subsequent replacement of the nominee prior to the general election will not alter the outcome once the nomination is secured.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
15%
chance▲ +0.2 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Market explained
This market measures whether Ron DeSantis wins and accepts the 2028 Republican nomination for U.S. president. A subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day does not alter the outcome.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Ron DeSantis wins and accepts the 2028 Republican Party nomination for U.S. president. The market resolves to No if he does not win and accept the nomination. A replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the market resolution. Resolution is determined by a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Republican Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·