Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution criteria are straightforward, requiring the candidate to formally win and accept the 2028 Republican presidential nomination.
Read the full assessment
The resolution criteria are straightforward, requiring the candidate to formally win and accept the 2028 Republican presidential nomination. Resolution is based on a consensus of official Republican Party sources rather than a single specified document or URL, introducing minor discretion in aggregating official statements. The rules also clarify that any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day will not retroactively alter the resolution once the nomination has been won and accepted.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Market explained
This market measures whether Josh Hawley wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Josh Hawley wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. The market resolves to No if he does not win and accept the nomination. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day does not change the resolution. Resolution is determined by a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Republican Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·