Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution criteria clearly define what constitutes a positive outcome: the named individual winning and accepting the official party presidential nomination.
Read the full assessment
The resolution criteria clearly define what constitutes a positive outcome: the named individual winning and accepting the official party presidential nomination. The resolution relies on official party sources rather than a single specified URL, but party nomination outcomes are official, widely broadcast events with negligible ambiguity. The rule addressing post-nomination replacement provides clear guidance that subsequent candidate changes will not alter the result once the nomination has occurred.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▼ −0.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Market explained
This market measures whether Steve Bannon will win and accept the Republican Party's nomination for U.S. president for the 2028 election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Steve Bannon wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. The market resolves to No if he does not win and accept the nomination. Any subsequent replacement of the Republican nominee prior to election day will not affect the resolution. Resolution is determined by a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Republican Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·