Will Tim Scott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market clearly requires the named individual to win and accept the Republican presidential nomination to resolve positively.
Read the full assessment
The market clearly requires the named individual to win and accept the Republican presidential nomination to resolve positively. While the resolution source is described as a consensus of official party sources rather than a specific URL or document, the outcome of an official major party nomination is a definitive, publicly verifiable event. The rule confirming that a later replacement of the nominee does not undo the outcome aligns with the question and prevents ambiguity.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Market explained
This market measures whether Tim Scott wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination. A key feature is that any subsequent replacement of the nominee prior to election day does not alter the resolution.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Tim Scott wins and accepts the 2028 Republican Party nomination for U.S. president. Any replacement of the nominee prior to election day will not change this resolution. The market resolves to No if he does not win and accept the nomination. Resolution is determined by a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Resolution source
Consensus of official Republican Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·