Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market resolves based on whether Tom Cotton secures and accepts the official 2028 Republican presidential nomination, relying on official party sources rather than media commentary.
Read the full assessment
The market resolves based on whether Tom Cotton secures and accepts the official 2028 Republican presidential nomination, relying on official party sources rather than media commentary. The condition requires both winning and accepting the nomination, meaning merely winning delegates without formal acceptance would not suffice. The rules clarify that subsequent candidate replacements prior to the general election will not retroactively alter the outcome once the nomination is formally accepted. Because the resolution criteria closely mirror standard convention outcomes and point directly to official party records, there is minimal room for unexpected interpretations.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▼ −0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Market explained
This market measures whether Tom Cotton wins and accepts the 2028 Republican nomination for U.S. president. Any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day does not alter the resolution.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Tom Cotton wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. The market resolves to No if he does not win and accept the nomination. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the market resolution. Resolution is determined by a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Republican Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·