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PoliticsCloses · in 48 days$168.3K volumePart of: Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027? →

Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?

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Gotcha risk

Medium

2 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: This market resolves early to Yes upon an announcement of departure, even if the actual exit takes effect after the deadline.

Read the full assessment

This market resolves early to Yes upon an announcement of departure, even if the actual exit takes effect after the deadline. Resolution relies primarily on official government announcements but permits a consensus of credible reporting (noted with a typo as 'credible reopening'), which grants the resolver some discretion in evaluating media reports. The scope of administration membership is clearly defined to cover formal appointments, minimizing interpretive ambiguity regarding what constitutes a departure.

Resolver
Medium
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Medium

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

41%

chance

▲ +9.5 pts · 24h

Yes41¢
No59¢
Howard Lutnick · Yes · 1MO 19.0 H 46.5 L 13.0 C 41.0+22.0 (+115.8%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▲ +22 pts24h · detected 12 Nov 2026, 01:10 UTC

The price rose from 24% to 41%, but there is insufficient evidence to identify a likely driver for the move.

  • Largest hourly change: 21:00 UTC, larger than the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 50 days after the move hour.
  • 2 related outcomes moved in the same window, 0 in the same direction. Largest: Kristi Noem (down), Marco Rubio (down).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 12 Nov 2026, 18:35 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

Market explained

This market measures whether Howard Lutnick will depart or have an announced departure from the Trump administration before 2027.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if it is announced that Howard Lutnick will leave the Trump Administration, or if he otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of his resignation or removal before the market end date immediately resolves the market to Yes, regardless of when it takes effect. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. The Trump administration is defined as individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to U.S. federal government roles publicly announced by official government channels. Resolution is decided using official information from the Trump administration, or a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution source

Official information from the Trump administration, or a consensus of credible reporting

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·