Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single designated authority or official schedule.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single designated authority or official schedule. The core condition requires an in-person encounter where both leaders are present and interact with each other, which introduces some subjectivity if they attend the same multilateral gathering or cross paths without a formal bilateral meeting. The rules clearly define a territorial clause assigning Russian-controlled areas to Russia and set a fixed deadline of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
3%
chance▲ +0.95 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no meeting takes place by December 31 ET, this market will resolve to "No meeting before 2027". A meeting is defined as any encounter where Zelenskyy and Putin are both present and interact with each other in person. For the purpose of this market, a meeting held on Ukrainian territory under the de facto control of Russia (e.g., Crimea) will be considered part of Russia. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether the next in-person meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin occurs in the United States before 2027. It includes a specific geographic rule defining Ukrainian territory under de facto Russian control as part of Russia.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin have their next in-person meeting in the United States by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying meeting requires both individuals to be present and interact in person. The market resolves to No if their next meeting occurs in a different location, or if no meeting takes place by the deadline (which resolves to "No meeting before 2027"). For location determination, any meeting held in Ukrainian territory under de facto Russian control is treated as Russia. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·