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Tech & ScienceCloses · in 48 days$2M volumePart of: Largest Company end of December 2026? →

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

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Gotcha risk

Medium

2 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The question title omits the target year, which the rules explicitly define as December 31, 2026.

Read the full assessment

The question title omits the target year, which the rules explicitly define as December 31, 2026. Additionally, the resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single definitive financial data provider or official exchange feed. Because market capitalization calculations can vary across financial media based on differing share counts or foreign exchange conversions, a close margin between top companies could leave resolution open to interpretation without a specified primary authority.

Resolver
High
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Medium

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

12%

chance

▼ −5 pts · 24h

Yes12¢
No89¢
NVIDIA · Yes · 1MO 80.5 H 80.5 L 9.5 C 11.5−69.0 (−85.7%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▼ −11 pts24h · detected 12 Nov 2026, 11:40 UTC

The market price fell from 25% to 15% as related outcomes repriced together, with the competing market for Apple moving in the opposite direction.

  • Largest hourly change: 22:00 UTC, 64% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 50 days after the move hour.
  • 1 related outcome moved in the same window, 0 in the same direction. Largest: Apple (up).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 12 Nov 2026, 11:50 UTC

Earlier

▼ −12 pts · 10 Nov 2026, 17:25 UTCThe market price dropped from 25% to 13%, moving alongside related markets for the same event, such as Apple, which also declined.News check pending.AI-generated · 10 Nov 2026, 17:35 UTC

Earlier

▲ +11 pts · 10 Nov 2026, 08:25 UTCThe price rose from 21% to 32% alongside shifts in related markets for the largest company by market cap, where Apple moved downward as a likely driver.News check pending.AI-generated · 10 Nov 2026, 08:35 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Market explained

This market measures whether NVIDIA will have the largest market capitalization in the world as of market close on December 31, 2026.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if NVIDIA is the largest company in the world by market cap as of market close on December 31, 2026. The market resolves to No if another company holds the largest market cap at that time. The resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution source

A consensus of credible reporting

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·