Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The question asks a binary question about Microsoft, but the rules state the market resolves to whichever company is largest, reflecting a slight mismatch between market phrasing and rule structure.
Read the full assessment
The question asks a binary question about Microsoft, but the rules state the market resolves to whichever company is largest, reflecting a slight mismatch between market phrasing and rule structure. Additionally, the question omits the year while the rule specifies December 31, 2026. Resolution depends on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a specified financial terminal, exchange feed, or market data provider, leaving determination of market capitalizations and currency conversions to judgment rather than a single definitive authority.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Microsoft will rank as the world's largest company by market capitalization at market close on December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Microsoft holds the largest market capitalization in the world at market close on December 31, 2026. The market resolves to No if another company has a higher market capitalization at that time. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·