Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The question title does not specify a year, though the detailed rules establish the target date as December 31, 2026, at market close.
Read the full assessment
The question title does not specify a year, though the detailed rules establish the target date as December 31, 2026, at market close. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a specific financial data terminal, official exchange feed, or standardized market-cap tracking index. Because calculating market capitalization for global multinational and state-owned firms can vary based on share class inclusion, free float adjustments, and foreign exchange conversion rates at different close times, reliance on broad reporting consensus leaves room for subjective interpretation if multiple companies are closely matched in valuation.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Tesla will hold the largest market capitalization globally as of market close on December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Tesla is the largest company in the world by market cap at market close on December 31, 2026. The market resolves to No if any other company holds the largest market cap at that time. Resolution will be determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·