Will Mark Zuckerberg be richest person on December 31?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify the resolution criteria and reference a specific date, time, and primary named source (the Bloomberg Billionaires Index at 5:30 PM ET on December 31, 2026).
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify the resolution criteria and reference a specific date, time, and primary named source (the Bloomberg Billionaires Index at 5:30 PM ET on December 31, 2026). The market defines an explicit fallback hierarchy using the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List or the latest available Bloomberg data if updates are delayed. While the question title omits the year, the rules explicitly establish December 31, 2026 as the target date with zero ambiguity regarding what ranking is required to resolve.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▲ +0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
Market explained
This market measures whether Mark Zuckerberg is ranked as the richest person on December 31, 2026, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, with specific fallback rules for resolution if the primary source is unavailable.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Mark Zuckerberg is ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, at 5:30 PM ET. The market resolves No if anyone other than Mark Zuckerberg is ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, at 5:30 PM ET. If the Bloomberg Billionaires Index data for December 31, 2026, is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used. If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. The resolution is determined by the Bloomberg Billionaires Index as the primary source.
Resolution source
Bloomberg Billionaires Index
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·