Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on an unspecified consensus of credible reporting or official Israeli acknowledgement rather than a single definitive authority.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on an unspecified consensus of credible reporting or official Israeli acknowledgement rather than a single definitive authority. This requires significant subjective judgment to verify whether strikes impacted ground territory and whether incoming projectiles were intercepted prior to impact, which specifically disqualifies them. Additionally, there are detailed exclusions for specific military actions such as artillery fire, surface-to-air missiles, FPV drone strikes, naval shelling, and ground incursions, as well as geographic carve-outs for Gaza, the West Bank, and territory controlled by Israel prior to 2026. The question also leaves open whether reaching six countries means at least six or exactly six countries.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
3%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Israel conducts qualifying drone, missile, or air strikes in six or more different countries during 2026, excluding strikes within Israeli-controlled territory, the West Bank, or Gaza, and focusing on specific types of aerial attacks.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Israel initiates qualifying drone, missile, or air strikes in six or more different countries between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026. A qualifying strike involves aerial bombs, drones, or missiles launched by Israeli military forces impacting another country's ground territory, acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Strikes on embassies or consulates count towards the country where they are located. The market resolves No if Israel initiates qualifying strikes in five or fewer different countries during the specified period. Strikes within territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, or within the West Bank or Gaza Strip, do not count. Missiles or drones that are intercepted, and surface-to-air missile strikes, do not count. Artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations by Israeli ground operatives do not qualify. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·