How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
10 live outcomes · highest priced: 6 at 3% · first close Jan 1, 2027 · $5.7M total volume
About this event
This event tracks the total number of distinct countries struck by Israel during 2026. Each individual market corresponds to a specific count of struck countries within the calendar year.
How the outcomes relate
Each market represents a specific exact count of different countries struck. Because the resolution depends on the final total number of countries struck during 2026, at most one market in the set can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
A market resolves Yes if the total number of distinct countries whose ground territory is impacted by qualifying Israeli aerial bombs, drones, or missiles between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, matches the specified count. A qualifying strike must be acknowledged by the Israeli government or reported by a consensus of credible reporting. Strikes in territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, or in the West Bank or Gaza Strip, do not count. Intercepted projectiles, surface-to-air missiles, artillery, small arms, FPV/ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, and cyberattacks are excluded. Embassies or consulates count toward the host country.
Key dates
- Start of tracking period: — January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
- End of tracking period: — December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
- Baseline territory control cutoff: — December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 3% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| 7 | 1% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| 8 | <1% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| 10 | <1% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| 9 | <1% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| 12 | <1% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| 15+ | <1% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| 11 | <1% | ±0 | Med | Low | |
| 13 | <1% | ±0 | Med | Low | |
| 14 | <1% | ±0 | Med | Low | |
| 5 | 13% | ▲ 5 | Med | Low | |
| 4 | — | — | Med | Low |