Will Israel strike 9 countries in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a designated official registry or international monitor, leaving significant latitude to market arbiters when evaluating disputed or covert military operations.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a designated official registry or international monitor, leaving significant latitude to market arbiters when evaluating disputed or covert military operations. Several detailed technical exclusions could surprise participants: strikes using artillery, naval shelling, direct anti-tank guided missiles, or first-person-view drones are excluded, as are intercepted munitions and surface-to-air missiles regardless of whether they cause ground damage. Additionally, operations in the West Bank, Gaza, and territory under Israeli control as of late 2025 do not count. The question wording does not clarify whether the target of 9 countries represents an exact total or an at-least threshold.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Israel conducts drone, missile, or air strikes that impact the soil of at least 9 different countries during the year 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves based on the total number of distinct countries struck by Israel in 2026. A qualifying strike must involve aerial bombs, drones, or missiles launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory, acknowledged by the Israeli government or credible reporting. Strikes on embassies or consulates count toward the host country. Strikes do not count if they occur within Israeli-controlled territory as of December 31, 2025, or within the West Bank or Gaza Strip. Intercepted projectiles, surface-to-air missiles, artillery, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, and ground operative actions are excluded. The deciding source is a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·