Will Israel strike 8 countries in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single official registry or government ledger to verify both the occurrence of a strike and the territory impacted.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single official registry or government ledger to verify both the occurrence of a strike and the territory impacted. The rules contain detailed exclusions that could disqualify actions commonly seen as military strikes: intercepted projectiles, surface-to-air missiles, artillery, naval shelling, direct ground actions, and strikes within the West Bank or Gaza Strip do not count. Participants should also note potential ambiguity between whether the market requires exactly eight countries or at least eight, alongside the challenge of verifying whether a weapon successfully impacted ground territory versus being intercepted mid-flight.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▲ +0.25 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Israel conducts qualifying drone, missile, or air strikes impacting the territory of at least 8 different countries during calendar year 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Israel initiates qualifying strikes impacting the soil of at least 8 distinct countries between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026. Qualifying strikes are aerial bombs, drones, or missiles launched by Israeli military forces that impact ground territory and are officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or credible reporting. Strikes on embassies or consulates count for the host country. Intercepted munitions, surface-to-air missiles, artillery, small arms, direct FPV/ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, ground operative actions, and strikes within the West Bank, Gaza Strip, or Israeli-controlled territory as of December 31, 2025, do not count. The market resolves No if the total is fewer than 8 countries. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·