Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies entirely on a consensus of credible reporting or official Israeli government acknowledgments to confirm strikes and verify impact locations across international borders.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies entirely on a consensus of credible reporting or official Israeli government acknowledgments to confirm strikes and verify impact locations across international borders. The rules feature several technical exclusions that holders should monitor: strikes within the West Bank, Gaza, or territory controlled by Israel prior to 2026 do not count. Additionally, intercepted munitions and surface-to-air missiles do not qualify even if debris impacts foreign soil, and specific weapon types such as artillery, naval shelling, direct FPV drones, and ground incursions are explicitly barred. Without a single official registry of strikes, the market relies on evaluator judgment to interpret reporting consensus across contested incidents.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Israel initiates qualifying aerial, drone, or missile strikes impacting the territory of 12 distinct countries during 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Israeli military forces initiate qualifying strikes that impact the soil of at least 12 different countries during the specified 2026 window. A qualifying strike requires aerial bombs, drones, or missiles acknowledged by the Israeli government or credible reporting consensus. Strikes on embassies or consulates count toward the host country. The market resolves No if Israel strikes fewer than 12 qualifying countries. Intercepted projectiles, surface-to-air missiles, artillery, naval shelling, small arms, ground incursions, cyberattacks, and strikes within the West Bank, Gaza Strip, or territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, do not count. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·