Will Israel strike 14 countries in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on evaluating a consensus of credible news reports rather than a single official registry or authority.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on evaluating a consensus of credible news reports rather than a single official registry or authority. Observers should note that the rules exclude several forms of military action that might otherwise be perceived as strikes, such as artillery fire, naval shelling, FPV strikes, and surface-to-air missiles. Furthermore, intercepted missiles or drones do not qualify even if their debris lands on foreign soil and causes damage. Territory controlled by Israel as of the end of 2025, alongside the West Bank and Gaza Strip, is explicitly excluded from the count. The phrasing in the question does not specify whether '14' means at least 14 or exactly 14, though the market mechanics evaluate the total count of distinct countries impacted.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Israeli forces conduct qualifying aerial, missile, or drone strikes on the soil of 14 different countries during 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Israeli military forces strike the ground territory of 14 different countries between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026. A qualifying strike requires aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) that impact ground territory and are acknowledged by the Israeli government or credible reporting. Strikes on embassies or consulates count toward the host country. Strikes within territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, or within the West Bank or Gaza Strip, do not count. Intercepted projectiles, surface-to-air missiles, artillery, small arms fire, FPV/ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, and cyberattacks are excluded. The market resolves to No if the number of targeted countries is not 14. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·