Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market relies on a direct, named official source: the Federal Reserve website publishing target federal funds rate decisions.
Read the full assessment
This market relies on a direct, named official source: the Federal Reserve website publishing target federal funds rate decisions. Resolution can occur early as soon as official data confirms the rate has reached 1.75% or lower, and emergency adjustments between scheduled FOMC meetings are explicitly included. The rule text uses standard template language referencing either the lower or upper bound, but the threshold condition is straightforward and leaves virtually no room for decider interpretation.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate range reaches 1.75% or lower before 2027. The rules state that reaching the specified level via either the lower bound or the upper bound qualifies.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the lower or upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 1.75% or lower at any point by December 31, 2026, at 12:59 PM ET. Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside regularly scheduled FOMC meetings are considered. The market resolves to No if neither bound reaches this level by the deadline. The market may resolve as soon as relevant data confirming the rate is published. The Federal Open Market Committee determines the target range, and the official website of the Federal Reserve decides resolution.
Resolution source
Official website of the Federal Reserve
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·