Ostium FDV above $3B one day after launch?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide a clear valuation formula and an exact evaluation time of 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch, along with a definitive longstop date of December 31, 2026.
Read the full assessment
The rules provide a clear valuation formula and an exact evaluation time of 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch, along with a definitive longstop date of December 31, 2026. However, the resolution relies on 'the most liquid price source available' rather than a named exchange or data aggregator, requiring the decider to determine which trading venue had the highest liquidity at the snapshot time. Additionally, defining the evaluation time strictly as 4:00 PM ET on the following calendar day means the actual duration between launch and price measurement could vary widely depending on what time of day the token begins trading.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ostium's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ostium doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Market explained
This market measures whether Ostium's token achieves a Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) above $3 billion precisely one day after its launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ostium's token is greater than $3 billion at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. Launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. FDV is calculated by multiplying the total token supply by the token price. The market resolves to No if the FDV is not greater than $3 billion at that time, or if Ostium does not launch a token by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source is the most liquid price source available.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·