Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify the calculation time as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the token's launch and set a clear final cutoff date of December 31, 2027.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify the calculation time as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the token's launch and set a clear final cutoff date of December 31, 2027. However, the resolution source is broadly defined as 'the most liquid price source available' rather than specifying a particular exchange, aggregator, or price oracle. This leaves discretion to the resolver to identify which platform qualifies as most liquid at the target timestamp and to determine the definitive total supply figure used to calculate the fully diluted valuation.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
21%
chance▼ −0.35 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Market explained
This market measures whether the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Variational's governance token exceeds $2B at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following its launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than $2B at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after launch. The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to count as launched, and FDV is calculated as the total token supply multiplied by the token price. The market resolves to No if the FDV is not greater than $2B at that time, or if Variational does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The deciding source is the most liquid price source available.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·