Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly define FDV as total supply multiplied by price, set a precise evaluation time of 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch, and provide a longstop expiration date of December 31, 2027.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly define FDV as total supply multiplied by price, set a precise evaluation time of 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch, and provide a longstop expiration date of December 31, 2027. However, the resolution source is broadly defined as 'the most liquid price source available' rather than a named exchange, price aggregator, or on-chain oracle. This leaves room for discretion in determining which venue counts as the most liquid and what exact price is recorded at the designated timestamp, which could be critical if the token trades near the threshold.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
11%
chance▲ +0.15 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Market explained
This market measures whether the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Variational's governance token exceeds $3B exactly one day after its launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than $3B at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. FDV is calculated as the total token supply multiplied by the token price from the most liquid price source available. A launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. The market resolves to No if the FDV is not above $3B at that time, or if Variational does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The deciding source is the most liquid price source available.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·