Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules establish a precise resolution timestamp of December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET and define clearly what constitutes officially holding the office of head of state.
Read the full assessment
The rules establish a precise resolution timestamp of December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET and define clearly what constitutes officially holding the office of head of state. A structured hierarchy of sources is provided, prioritizing the UN-recognized government of Venezuela and offering a direct UN protocol directory link as an explicit fallback if the government's position is unclear. Explicit tie-breaking criteria and comprehensive exclusion criteria for unofficial, pending, or former roles leave little room for subjective interpretation.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Market explained
This market measures whether Frank Donovan officially holds the position of head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Frank Donovan officially holds the position of head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET, meaning he was formally appointed, confirmed, and sworn in, or confirmed by official government information. Individuals merely nominated, designated with a future effective date, previously serving, serving unofficially, named as heir apparent, or holding an oversight role do not qualify. The market resolves to No if another individual officially holds the position, or to "No Head of State" if no individual holds it. If multiple heads of state are listed, primary status or earliest assumption date resolves the market. The primary resolution source is official information from the UN-recognized government of Venezuela, with UN listings and credible reporting as fallbacks.
Resolution source
Official information from the UN-recognized government of Venezuela, the UN, and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·