Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market establishes a specific snapshot time of December 31, 2026, at 12 PM ET and clearly defines the criteria for officially holding the position.
Read the full assessment
This market establishes a specific snapshot time of December 31, 2026, at 12 PM ET and clearly defines the criteria for officially holding the position. The resolution order is well-structured: it looks first to official information from the UN-recognized government of Venezuela, falls back to a specifically linked United Nations protocol directory if the government does not clearly identify the officeholder, and allows a consensus of credible reporting only as a tertiary check. Clear tie-breaking rules and explicit lists of disqualifying conditions minimize ambiguity around contested claims or transitional scenarios.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▼ −0.15 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Market explained
This market measures whether Venezuela will have no official head of state as of December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
How it resolves
The market resolves to "No Head of State" (Yes) if no individual officially holds the position of head of state of Venezuela at the specified time. It resolves to a specific individual (No) if someone is formally appointed, confirmed, sworn in, or confirmed by official government information as holding the office. Individuals who are merely nominated, announced, pending a future effective date, former officeholders whose terms ended, serving unofficially or as consultants, named as successors, or holding supervisory roles do not qualify. If multiple individuals are listed, the market resolves to the one with primary status, or the one who first assumed the role. Resolution is determined by official information from the UN-recognized government of Venezuela, or fallbacks to UN listings and credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from the UN-recognized government of Venezuela, UN Head of State listings, and a consensus of credible reporting.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·