Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch?
Gotcha risk
Medium1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules establish a specific measurement time (4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch) and a formula for calculating the fully diluted valuation.
Read the full assessment
The rules establish a specific measurement time (4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch) and a formula for calculating the fully diluted valuation. However, the price resolution relies on 'the most liquid price source available' without specifying an exact platform, aggregator (like CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap), or DEX/CEX, leaving discretion to the resolver to determine which venue had the deepest liquidity at that specific minute. A long-stop date of December 31, 2027, cleanly resolves the market to No if no token launches.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
3%
chance▼ −0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Abstract's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Abstract doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Market explained
This market measures whether the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Abstract's governance token exceeds $200 million one day after launch, requiring active and public trading to qualify as a launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation (total token supply multiplied by token price) of Abstract's governance token is greater than $200M at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. A launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. The market resolves to No if the FDV is not greater than $200M at that time, or if Abstract does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Token price is determined using the most liquid price source available.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·