Abstract FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market has a clear long-term cutoff date and a specific timestamp for measurement, set at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after trading begins.
Read the full assessment
The market has a clear long-term cutoff date and a specific timestamp for measurement, set at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after trading begins. However, risk arises from the resolution source definition, which specifies only 'the most liquid price source available' without naming a specific exchange, aggregator, or method for calculating total token supply versus circulating supply. Because liquidity can be fragmented across multiple decentralized and centralized exchanges at launch, determining which source qualifies as the most liquid and obtaining its exact spot price at the target minute requires discretion.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance▲ +0.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Abstract's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Abstract doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Market explained
This market measures whether Abstract's governance token achieves a Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) above $1.5 billion one day after its launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Abstract's governance token is greater than $1.5 billion at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. A launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. The FDV is calculated by multiplying the total token supply by the token price. The market resolves to No if the FDV is not greater than $1.5 billion at that time, or if Abstract does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined using the most liquid price source available.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·