Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly define the measurement window as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after the token becomes publicly tradable, and include a clear long-stop date of December 31, 2027 resolving to No if no launch occurs.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly define the measurement window as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after the token becomes publicly tradable, and include a clear long-stop date of December 31, 2027 resolving to No if no launch occurs. However, the price data relies on the most liquid price source available without naming a specific exchange, oracle, or aggregator like CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap. In volatile post-launch trading where prices diverge across decentralized and centralized venues, selecting which venue had the highest liquidity at that exact minute requires resolver judgment. Additionally, verifying the official total token supply depends on project documentation available at that time.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
96%
chance▼ −2.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Market explained
This market measures whether the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Predict.fun's governance token exceeds $300 million exactly one calendar day after its public launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than $300 million at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. A token launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. FDV is calculated by multiplying the total token supply by the token price from the most liquid price source available. The market resolves to No if the FDV is not greater than $300 million at that specific time, or if Predict.fun does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·