Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market defines a clear measurement time of 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch and a standard formula for fully diluted valuation.
Read the full assessment
The market defines a clear measurement time of 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch and a standard formula for fully diluted valuation. However, the price source is loosely specified as the most liquid price source available rather than naming a designated price aggregator, decentralized exchange pool, or centralized exchange, which creates room for interpretation if different venues report diverging prices at that exact moment. Furthermore, the source for verifying the total token supply is not explicitly stated. A long-stop deadline of December 31, 2027, ensures the market resolves definitively to No if no token launch occurs.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
92%
chance▼ −2.45 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Market explained
This market measures whether the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Predict.fun's governance token exceeds $400M one day after its public launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than $400M at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. FDV is calculated as the total token supply multiplied by the token price. A token launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. The market resolves to No if the FDV is not greater than $400M at that time, or if Predict.fun does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution pricing is determined using the most liquid price source available.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·