Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market resolves based on token valuation at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch, but it designates the resolution source as the most liquid price source available rather than specifying a particular exchange, aggregator, or liquidity measure like trading volume versus order book depth.
Read the full assessment
The market resolves based on token valuation at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch, but it designates the resolution source as the most liquid price source available rather than specifying a particular exchange, aggregator, or liquidity measure like trading volume versus order book depth. Because newly launched tokens often experience sharp price divergence across different decentralised pools and centralised exchanges, selecting which venue counts as most liquid gives the decider meaningful latitude. Additionally, the exact method for verifying total token supply is not pinned to a specific smart contract or documentation source. If no token launches before the December 31, 2027 cutoff, the market defaults to No.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Medium
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
91%
chance▼ −2.65 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Market explained
This market measures whether the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token exceeds $500M exactly one day after its public launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation (total supply multiplied by token price) of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than $500M at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. For a launch to count, the token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. The market resolves to No if the FDV is $500M or less at that specific time, or if Predict.fun does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome is determined using the most liquid price source available.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·