Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?
Gotcha risk
Medium1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify the exact valuation formula, launch criteria, and a concrete evaluation timestamp at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the launch.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify the exact valuation formula, launch criteria, and a concrete evaluation timestamp at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the launch. However, the resolution relies on 'the most liquid price source available' rather than a named aggregator or exchange, leaving room for interpretation regarding which trading venue qualifies as the most liquid and what exact price snapshot is recorded at the designated time.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
99%
chance▲ +0.2 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Market explained
This market measures whether the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Predict.fun's governance token exceeds $100M exactly one day after its launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than $100M at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. A token launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. The FDV is calculated as the total token supply multiplied by the token price. The market resolves to No if the FDV does not exceed $100M at that time, or if Predict.fun does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined using the most liquid price source available.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·