Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules establish a clear formula for fully diluted valuation and define the exact evaluation time as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch.
Read the full assessment
The rules establish a clear formula for fully diluted valuation and define the exact evaluation time as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. However, no specific exchange or data provider is named; resolution relies on whatever is judged to be the most liquid price source available at the checkpoint. Prices and reported total token supplies can vary across liquidity pools and market trackers during initial trading, which introduces decider judgment. If a token is not publicly tradable by December 31, 2027, the market automatically resolves to No.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
88%
chance▼ −2.55 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Market explained
This market measures whether the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Predict.fun's governance token exceeds $600M exactly one day after its public launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation (total token supply multiplied by token price) of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than $600M at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. A launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. The market resolves to No if the FDV is not greater than $600M at that time, or if Predict.fun does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Token pricing is determined by the most liquid price source available.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·