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CryptoCloses · in 413 days$1.1M volumePart of: Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch? →

Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?

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Gotcha risk

Medium

2 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The rules clearly specify the exact evaluation time as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the launch, and provide a clear long-term expiration date.

Read the full assessment

The rules clearly specify the exact evaluation time as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the launch, and provide a clear long-term expiration date. However, the price resolution relies on 'the most liquid price source available' without naming a specific exchange, aggregator, or price index, leaving room for interpretation regarding which trading venue qualifies and how token supply is verified.

Resolver
Medium
Timing
Low
Wording
Medium
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

47%

chance

▼ −8.95 pts · 24h

Yes47¢
No53¢
$1B · Yes · 1MO 47.6 H 90.8 L 41.9 C 47.4−0.3 (−0.5%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▼ −12 pts24h · detected 13 Nov 2026, 08:10 UTC

The price fell from 59% to 47% as part of a broader repricing across related launch valuation markets, with 3 related outcomes moving simultaneously.

  • Largest hourly change: 14:00 UTC, 38% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 414 days after the move hour.
  • 3 related outcomes moved in the same window, 1 in the same direction. Largest: $400M (down), $600M (up), $1.5B (up).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 13 Nov 2026, 08:20 UTC

Earlier

▲ +13 pts · 12 Nov 2026, 08:25 UTCThe market price rose from 46% to 59%, moving alongside 5 related valuation markets for the event, with 4 outcomes repricing in the same upward direction.Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.AI-generated · 12 Nov 2026, 08:35 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Market explained

This market measures whether the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Predict.fun's governance token exceeds $1 billion at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following its launch.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if the FDV of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than $1 billion at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after launch. Launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. FDV is calculated as the total token supply multiplied by the token price from the most liquid price source available. The market resolves to No if the FDV does not exceed $1 billion at that time, or if Predict.fun does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The price is determined using the most liquid price source available.

Resolution source

The most liquid price source available

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·