Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules establish a specific snapshot time at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch and provide an ultimate expiry date of December 31, 2027.
Read the full assessment
The rules establish a specific snapshot time at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch and provide an ultimate expiry date of December 31, 2027. However, the resolution relies on 'the most liquid price source available' without specifying how liquidity is measured or naming an exact oracle, aggregator, or exchange. Differences in pricing across venues or interpretations of what constitutes the most liquid venue could influence the final valuation calculation.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
23%
chance▼ −2.2 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Market explained
This market measures whether the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token exceeds $1.5 billion one day after launch, where launch requires active, public transferability and trading.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than $1.5 billion at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. FDV is calculated as the total token supply multiplied by the token price. The token launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. The market resolves to No if the FDV is not greater than $1.5 billion at that time, or if Predict.fun does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution relies on the most liquid price source available.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·