Will Massoud Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market evaluates who holds de facto executive authority in Iran as of December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET, regardless of official constitutional titles or foreign recognition.
Read the full assessment
This market evaluates who holds de facto executive authority in Iran as of December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET, regardless of official constitutional titles or foreign recognition. The rules establish detailed criteria for measuring real governing authority, such as control over armed forces, state institutions, and core territory. However, resolution relies entirely on judging a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official registry or formal appointment. In the event of a disputed transition or fragmented control, determining whether any individual meets the threshold for primary governing authority requires qualitative assessment by the decider.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Market explained
This market measures whether Massoud Rajavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of head of state of Iran on December 31, 2026. Unusually, resolution relies strictly on practical governing authority within Iran rather than formal titles, constitutional designations, or international recognition.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Massoud Rajavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. De facto authority requires primary governing control, including control over armed forces, executive institutions, and core infrastructure, regardless of formal appointment or international recognition. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service do not qualify. The market resolves No if another individual exercises this primary control or if no individual exercises effective governing control. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·