Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Gotcha risk
High3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market carries significant risk of unexpected resolution because the rules explicitly define the head of state as whoever holds de facto primary governing control over Iran, including command of the armed forces and core decision-making, rather than formal constitutional title.
Read the full assessment
This market carries significant risk of unexpected resolution because the rules explicitly define the head of state as whoever holds de facto primary governing control over Iran, including command of the armed forces and core decision-making, rather than formal constitutional title. Under Iran's constitution, the Supreme Leader, not the President, exercises primary authority and military command, meaning Pezeshkian remaining President would not automatically satisfy the rule criteria unless he also exercises supreme governing control. Additionally, resolution relies on an open-ended consensus of credible reporting to judge who holds effective power on December 31, 2026, rather than an official roster or government declaration, leaving final determination to subjective assessment.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▲ +0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Market explained
This market measures whether Masoud Pezeshkian will be the de facto head of state of Iran on December 31, 2026. Unusually, resolution depends strictly on de facto governing power and effective control rather than formal titles, constitutional designations, or international recognition.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Masoud Pezeshkian de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. De facto authority requires exercising primary governing authority, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decisions, regardless of formal title or recognition. Symbolic status, nomination without effective authority, and foreign recognition without domestic control do not count. The market resolves to No if another individual holds this de facto authority. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, the market resolves to 'No Head of State'. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting assessing effective governing authority.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·