Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Gotcha risk
High3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market divorces the definition of head of state from constitutional title, official appointment, and international recognition, focusing instead on de facto exercise of primary governing authority and control over the armed forces and institutions.
Read the full assessment
This market divorces the definition of head of state from constitutional title, official appointment, and international recognition, focusing instead on de facto exercise of primary governing authority and control over the armed forces and institutions. Because Iran's formal political structure separates the Supreme Leader, President, and other leadership bodies, evaluating who holds de facto supreme control in an ambiguous succession or power-sharing scenario requires subjective evaluation. Resolution relies entirely on a consensus of credible reporting to determine whether someone exercises effective control at the specified snapshot date and time, granting substantial latitude to the resolution decider in interpreting media consensus.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- High
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Market explained
This market measures whether Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf will de facto hold and exercise the powers of head of state of Iran on December 31, 2026. Resolution focuses strictly on de facto governing authority rather than formal titles, constitutional designations, or international recognition.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf de facto holds and exercises primary governing authority over Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. This requires effective control over armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal appointment or international recognition. The market resolves to No if another individual holds de facto authority. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, and expired prior service do not qualify. The market resolves to 'No Head of State' if no individual exercises effective governing control at that time. A consensus of credible reporting decides the outcome.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·