Metamask FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market clearly defines the measurement timing as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch, as well as an explicit expiration date resolving to No if no token launches by the end of 2026.
Read the full assessment
The market clearly defines the measurement timing as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch, as well as an explicit expiration date resolving to No if no token launches by the end of 2026. However, the resolution source is vaguely specified as the most liquid price source available without naming a primary exchange, aggregator, or method for verifying the token's total supply to compute the fully diluted valuation. This gives the resolver discretion in choosing price data across decentralized or centralized venues.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Last captured price
4%
chance▲ +0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Metamask's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Metamask doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Market explained
This market measures whether Metamask's token reaches a Fully Diluted Valuation greater than $500M exactly one day after its public launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves based on the most liquid price source available. The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Metamask's token is greater than $500M at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following its launch. A launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. The market resolves to No if the FDV is not greater than $500M at that specific time. The market also resolves to No if Metamask does not launch a token by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·