Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution depends on measuring the fully diluted valuation of MetaMask's token at exactly 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following its launch.
Read the full assessment
Resolution depends on measuring the fully diluted valuation of MetaMask's token at exactly 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following its launch. While the exact evaluation timestamp and the fallback deadline of December 31, 2026 are clearly defined, the source for the token's price and total supply is not a named aggregator or official registry. Instead, the rules specify the most liquid price source available, leaving room for interpretation regarding which specific centralized exchange, decentralized pool, or market tracking platform provides the governing price and supply figures. If no token launches by the stated 2026 deadline, the market resolves definitively to No.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
4%
chance▲ +0.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Metamask's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Metamask doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Market explained
This market measures whether Metamask's token reaches a Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) above $100M one day after its launch. Resolution depends on the token becoming actively and publicly tradable before a specific deadline.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Metamask's token is greater than $100M at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following its launch. A launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. The market resolves to No if the FDV is not above $100M at that time, or if Metamask does not launch a token by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined using the most liquid price source available.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·