Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify a fixed observation timestamp at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the launch, along with a definitive expiration date of December 31, 2026, resolving to No if no token launches.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify a fixed observation timestamp at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the launch, along with a definitive expiration date of December 31, 2026, resolving to No if no token launches. However, the resolution source is vaguely defined as 'the most liquid price source available' rather than a named price feed, index, or data aggregator like CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap. Additionally, calculating Fully Diluted Valuation requires an agreed-upon total maximum token supply, which is not defined in the rules and may depend on how early tokenomics are reported across different platforms.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
5%
chance▲ +1.7 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Metamask's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Metamask doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Market explained
This market measures whether Metamask's token reaches a Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) above $1B one day after its launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Metamask's token is greater than $1B at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following its launch. The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to count as launched. The market resolves to No if the FDV is not greater than $1B at that time, or if Metamask does not launch a token by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The deciding source is the most liquid price source available.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·