Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution rules clearly define market capitalization as the product of outstanding shares and the closing price on the initial day of trading.
Read the full assessment
The resolution rules clearly define market capitalization as the product of outstanding shares and the closing price on the initial day of trading. The primary exchange's official listing page serves as the designated reference source, with sensible contingencies for trading interruptions or abbreviated sessions. The market specifies an explicit expiration date of December 31, 2027, and includes an unambiguous tie-breaking rule if the final figure lands precisely on a bracket boundary.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▼ −0.3 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market explained
This market measures whether Anthropic's market capitalization falls strictly within the $2.5T to $2.75T range at the close of its first day of trading. It features specific handling for trading interruptions, border values, and a long-stop deadline.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Anthropic's market capitalization—calculated as shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on its first trading day—is between $2.5T and $2.75T. Values falling exactly on a bracket boundary resolve to the higher range bracket. The market resolves to No if the market cap falls into a different valuation bracket. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, it resolves to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". In case of trading interruptions, the official close of the abbreviated session is used; if none is published, the next trading day with an official close is treated as the first day. Resolution is decided by data from the primary exchange's official listing page, or another reliable source if unavailable.
Resolution source
The primary exchange's official listing page, or another reliable source if not displayed
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·