Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide precise criteria for determining the outcome, defining the 'best AI model' specifically by its rank on the Chatbot Arena text leaderboard with style control disabled.
Read the full assessment
The rules provide precise criteria for determining the outcome, defining the 'best AI model' specifically by its rank on the Chatbot Arena text leaderboard with style control disabled. Resolution is tied to a specific timestamp on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Detailed tie-breaking procedures are defined in sequence: leaderboard rank, granular unrounded Arena score, and finally alphabetical ordering of company names. The only notable point of caution is that if the specified website becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will rely on an unspecified alternative source.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market explained
This market measures whether Microsoft owns the top-ranked AI model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the end of December 2026. Resolution relies on specific tie-breaking rules, including arena scores and company alphabetical order.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Microsoft owns the model occupying first place on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the check time. The market resolves to No if a model owned by another company occupies first place. Models are ordered primarily by their rank in the "Rank" section of the text leaderboard with style control off. Ties are broken first by Arena score (including unrounded granular values), and finally by the alphabetical order of the company names listed in the market group. If the leaderboard is temporarily offline at check time, the market remains open until it is available again; if permanently unavailable, another source will be used. The Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard decides.
Resolution source
Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·