Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify an exact definition for what constitutes the top AI model, pointing directly to a specific leaderboard URL and tab with exact filter parameters (text leaderboard with style control off).
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify an exact definition for what constitutes the top AI model, pointing directly to a specific leaderboard URL and tab with exact filter parameters (text leaderboard with style control off). Resolution occurs at an exact date and time, with comprehensive and unambiguous tie-breaking criteria established (leaderboard rank, granular score, and alphabetical ordering). A clear fallback procedure is provided in case the website is offline at the scheduled check time.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market explained
This market measures whether Baidu owns the top-ranked AI model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard as of December 31, 2026. Resolution relies on a strict tiebreaking hierarchy including unrounded Arena scores and alphabetical company ordering if necessary.
How it resolves
The market resolves as Yes if Baidu owns the AI model occupying first place on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when checked. The market resolves as No if any other company's model occupies first place. Models are ranked primarily by leaderboard rank under the Leaderboard tab with style control off. Ties in rank are broken first by exact, unrounded Arena score values, and then by alphabetical order of the company names listed in the market group. The check is performed using the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard. If the source is unavailable, the market remains open until it returns, resolving on the first check after availability. If permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be used.
Resolution source
Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·